Forecasting Demand

Firm can estimate the way in which consumer’s demand for their products respond to changes in price and other determinants. We have summarised how the causal link between the level of demand and its. Determinates may be quantified using regression analysis. However, in order to plan for production, inventory or advertising expenditure, in the short-term and longer term, the firm must attempt to estimate future demand for its products planning, therefore, necessitates forecasting. We now turn to describe those forecasting methods which are most commonly employed in business. At the outside it ought to be appreciated that all forecasting techniques should be treated with a degree of caution since none can be described as infallible. However, the fact remains that business (as well as governments) have little choice but to make forecasts, albeit crude ones, in order to formulate decisions and future plans. Sometimes the forecasts arrived at will be implicit (based perhaps on ‘know-how’ and hunch) while at other times they will be explicit (based on some formula statistical techniques). The key challenge is to arrive at the best method for producing the best forecasts-‘best’ ultimately can only be decided, of course, on the basis of comparing forecast and outcomes. 

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